2006年3月31日前郭地震的预测实践回顾与总结

A review and summary of prediction practice of the Qianguo earthquake on March 31,2006

2006年3月31日在吉林省前郭发生了MS5.0级地震,震前部分地下流体测点和区域地震活动出现较显著异常,同时出现了多处宏观异常。根据这些情况,震前提出了短临预测意见。本文回顾了地震前分析过程中前兆及地震特征,并收集了更多资料分析异常变化特征,认为地下流体前兆在地震短临阶段有较好的映震能力。以上总结工作对今后震情分析有一定借鉴意义。

An MS 5.0 earthquake occurred on March 31, 2006, in Qianguo of Jilin Province. Before the earthquake prominent anomalies appeared at some ground fluid observation sites and in the regional seismicity, a number of macroscopic anomalies were also reported. Based on these anomalies a short-term prediction was made before the earthquake. This paper reviews the characteristics of the anomalies and the earthquake recognized in the process of pre-earthquake analysis. Additional data were collected for analyzing the anomaly variation characteristics. It is concluded that underground fluid anomalies are better indicators of the earthquake in short-term and imminent stage. This review is of certain significance for future earthquake risk analyses.