基于专家系统的多年调节水库年消落水位优选

Optimal adjustment of year-end stage of multi-year regulating reservoirs based on expert system

多年调节水库年末消落水位是协调当年与未来效益的重要控制变量。为了在未来可能来水不确定的情况下优选当前年末水库水位,构建了年末消落水位优选专家系统总体框架,分析了年末消落水位形成模式,给出了推理数据源生成方法,在推理机中实现消落水位推理。滩坑水库实证结果表明:该方法推理出的消落水位与最优解接近,且发电量与多年连算最优解差距很小,供电稳定性和水资源利用率等指标也达到较高水平,对于指导多年调节水库年度发电计划的编制有实用价值。

The year-end stage of a multi-year regulating reservoir is a significant control variable for coordinating current and future benefits.To optimize this control stage in the case of potential uncertainty in future reservoir inflows,this paper constructs a general framework for an expert system.By analyzing its causes and mechanism,we develop a method for generating inference data sources and implementing a procedure of reservoir stage reasoning in an interface machine.Application in a case study of the Tankeng reservoir shows that the year-end stage solution of the expert system is close to the optimal solution with only a small difference,and that other indicators,such as power supply stability and water resource utilization rate,are also at high levels.Thus,our method and expert system are practical and useful in the planning of annual power generation of multi-year regulating reservoirs.