基于云模型的集装箱船大风浪航行安全评价

Safety assessment of container ship navigating in heavy sea based on cloud model

为较客观地评价集装箱船在大风浪中航行的安全问题,需要解决安全评价过程中指标因素的模糊性和随机性问题。确定"人—船—环境—管理"集装箱船大风浪航行安全评价指标体系,建立基于云模型的安全评价模型。对该模型进行实例验证。结果表明,云模型能够实现定性描述与定量评价的相互转换,有效减弱评价过程中主观因素的过度干扰,显著提高安全评价结果的可靠性。

In order to assess the safety of container ship navigating in heavy sea objectively,it is necessary to solve the fuzziness and randomness of index factors in the safety assessment process. After determining the'human-ship-environment-management'safety assessment index system of container ship navigation in heavy sea,a safety assessment model based on the cloud model is established. The model is verified by an example. The results show that the cloud model can make a conversion between qualitative description and quantitative valuation,reduce excessive interference of human factors effectively,and improve the reliability of safety evaluation results greatly.