基于专家定权和证据推理的舰船“六性”评估

Evaluation on “six indexes” of naval ships based on expert weighting and evidential reasoning

针对新型舰船评估专家组意见统合及效能评估问题,在考虑新型舰船可靠性、维修性、保障性、安全性、测试性、环境适应性等"六性"特点的基础上,建立新型舰船"六性"评估指标体系。提出一种基于专家聚类和偏差熵的定权方法统一专家组意见。采用证据推理法实现对新型舰船的综合评估。以某舰船的3个设计方案为例,确定专家组权重信息,对各方案的"六性"水平进行综合评估,得到综合评估结果及各特性水平,验证基于专家定权和证据推理的综合评估方法的可行性和有效性。该方法可为新型舰船的"六性"评估工作提供决策支持。

For the issue of opinion integration of evaluation expert group and effectiveness evaluation of a new naval ship,with the consideration of the characteristics of 'six indexes'which include reliability,maintainability,supportability,safety,testability and environmental adaptability,the evaluation index system of 'six indexes'for a new naval ship is established. A weight determination method based on expert cluster and deviation entropy is proposed to unify expert opinions. The method of evidential reasoning is used to realize the comprehensive evaluation of a new naval ship. By applying the method to three design schemes of a naval ship,the weight information of expert group is determined,and the'six indexes'levels of each scheme are evaluated synthetically to obtain the comprehensive evaluation results and characteristic levels. The feasibility and effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation method based on expert weighting and evidential reasoning are verified. This method can provide decision support for the 'six indexes'evaluation of a new naval ship.