中国对其他金砖国家出口的第三国效应研究

On Third-effect of Export to Other BRICS in China

2017年的金砖国家领导人会晤提出以"金砖+"扩展朋友圈,为此亟需研究中国面向其他金砖国家出口对其他发展中国家(即金砖国家之外的发展中国家)出口的第三国效应。本文在梳理现有文献的基础上,把中国面向其他金砖国家出口对其他发展中国家出口的第三国效应分解为替代效应、收入效应、互补效应,并采用2000—2016年的面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明,中国面向其他金砖国家出口挤入了其他发展中国家的出口;并且挤入效应受金融危机与空间因素的影响不显著,而随其他发展中国家人均GDP的提升而增强。为推动"金砖+"模式,中国应充分利用金砖国家在全球价值链中的枢纽地位,帮助其他发展中国家发展本国经济,充分发挥互补效应;并且建立长期贸易合作伙伴关系,促进其他发展中国家贸易结构平稳升级。

BRICS+ proposed by the ninth BRIC summit in 2017 to expand the circle of friends urgently needs to study third-effect of export to other BRICS in China.Based on the literature,third-effect of export is decomposed into substitution effect,income effect and complementary effect in this paper.Them the empirical test is carried out by using panel data from 2000to2016.The results show that China’s exports are crowded in the export of other developing countries;and the crowd-in effect has not been affected by the financial crisis and spatial distance,but it will increase as the per capita GDP of other developing countries rises.In order to promote the BRICS+ model,China should make the best of complementary effect with Global Value Chains and aid other developing countries to develop their own economies.Them they should establish long-term trade cooperation partnerships to avoid substitution effect.