上海产业结构变迁的经济增长效应分析

Effect of Industrial Structures Change on Economic Growth in Shanghai

以1950—2012年的上海数据为样本,通过测度产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化指标,构建的产业结构变迁与经济增长计量经济模型表明:产业结构合理化与经济增长之间的关系较为稳定,而高级化则表现出较大不确定性,且产业结构合理化对经济发展的作用要远大于产业结构高级化;通过对服务业各行业的分析发现,金融业、信息服务和软件业、房地产业等行业结构合理度较低,并从生产性服务业发展、专业培训、市场化改革等角度为上海提高整体国民经济和服务业的产业结构合理度提出一些建议和措施。

By reviewing the industrial structure upgrade index and industrial structure rationalization index and analyzing the effect of industrial structure change on economy growth on the basis of Shanghai's data during 1950—2012,this paper concludes that while ISR has a much stable effect on economy growth,ISU has an unstable effect on economy growth to a certain extent,and that ISR has much greater effect on the economic growth than ISU.As for the service industry of Shanghai,the level of sub-sector structure rationalization is much lower in sectors such as Finance,Information,Computer Service,Software,and Real Estate Industry.This paper also puts forward corresponding suggestion in the fields of service industry development,professional training and market reform.