城市能源效率层级识别及层级预测——多层级前沿面DEA的新应用

The Hierarchical Identification and Prediction of City's Energy Efficiency——A Novel Multi-Level Frontier DEA

针对城市能源效率提升难的问题,本文提出了基于城市能源效率层级识别的逐级跃迁路径方法。首先通过构建多层级前沿面DEA模型,实现了对城市能源效率的层级的划分,将全国273个城市划分为六个等级。其次为考察2013~2017年城市能源层级的变化趋势,分别对2015~2017年的相关数值进行预测。结果表明在目前发展趋势下,各个城市能源效率的跃迁大多是逐级跃迁,实现跨级跃迁的难度较大,而且有部分城市甚至出现层级倒退现象。因此设计合理的跃迁路径对于提高能源效率具有重要作用,一种可能的跃迁路径是根据能源效率的层级来识别出上一层级的学习标杆,向次优城市学习,而非向最优城市学习。这些研究结论对于城市提高能源效率具有重要的指导意义。

In view of the difficulty in improvement energy efficiency in cities, the transition path step by step based on hierarchical identification is proposed in this paper. Firstly, by building a multi-level frontier DEA model, we dividied 273 city into six levels. Secondly, to show the change trend of urban energy levels in 2013-2017, numerical predictions in 2015-2017 was conduct respectively. Results show that most of cities realization hierarchical transition is step by step, and it is very difficult to step over levels. Particularly, there are some cities even display retrograde. So the reasonable transition path plays an important role in improving energy efficiency. A possible transition path is tep by step transition and the other is the grade across transition. Learn from subprime cities rather than the best city may be a better way to improve energy efficiency. These results for urban energy efficiency has an important guiding significance.