1970年～2009年国际主要粮食价格承受力分析

The Price Affordability Analysis of International Main Grain in 1970～2009

本文从粮食安全的角度出发,分析和构建了基于国民收入和国际粮食价格的粮食价格承受力模型,用于分析和评价世界不同地区的粮食价格承受力,结果表明:(1)受世界经济的不断发展和粮食生产率的提高,世界整体的粮食价格承受力逐渐增强,世界整体的粮食安全风险逐渐减弱;(2)从局部来看,受国民收入水平差距的影响,不同地区世界粮食价格承受力存在很大的差距,其中,非洲等地区的粮食价格承受力呈现减弱的趋势,粮食安全风险加大;(3)全球化进一步将国际粮食格局强化,粮食出口地区利用自己在国际粮食贸易中的优势地位获利,粮食价格承受力较高,粮食安全风险相对较低,而粮食进口地区的在国际贸易中处于被动接受的地位,粮食价格承受力较低,粮食安全风险相对较高。

Grain security is a major security strategic issues for human. From the view of grain security, this study builds the model of grain prices affordability based on national income and grain prices to analyze and evaluate affordability of international price in different continents, the results show that: with the continuous development of world economy and improvement of grain productivity, the world's overall grain price affordability is enhancing gradually and the world's overall grain risks is diminished; from regional view, the gap between affordability of different parts of the world exist. The affordability of grain prices in Africa and other regions show a weakening trend and the risk of grain security is high;the grain production pattern is further strengthened by globalization, the grain export area take the advantage position in the international grain trade with high grain prices affordability and low grain security risk. On the other hand, because of the passive position in international grain trade, the grain prices affordability of the grain import regions is low and the grain security risk is relatively high.