国内外人口收缩研究进展综述

A literature research on population shrinking

近年来随着全球人口出生率下降,人口收缩逐渐成为全球面临的共同问题,这一现象在我国也日趋明显,未来需要持续的关注和研究。本文从人口收缩的内涵和测度方法、变化趋势及空间特征、影响因素等几个重要的方面对国内外的研究进行了系统的梳理和总结。基于现有的研究,国内对人口收缩的研究未来需要重点关注以下方面:一是需要加强人口收缩区空间演变特征及趋势的研究,总结过去不同时期及分析未来人口收缩的空间变化规律;二是需要结合我国人口变化的特点,建立人口收缩形成机理的理论框架,对人口收缩的影响因素进行探讨;三是需要进一步讨论人口收缩的正负社会经济效应及应对策略,尤其是根据不同区域的经济发展、资源环境状况进行有针对性的分类探讨;四是需要加强人口收缩区城镇化问题等区域发展重大问题的研究。

With the decrease of fertility level in past decades, population shrinking has gained much attention across the world. It has also gradually become a general problem in China, which need further studies in the future.This paper has reviewed the progress of these studies from the connotation of population shrinking, the measurement methods, its spatial characteristics and trend, and the causes of population shrinking. Based on the existing studies,we found that some aspects of population shrinking should be concerned in the future studies in China. First, the spatial characteristics and change trend need further research, especially the spatial pattern among different stages and how population shrinking will be evolution in the future. Second, based on the law of population change in China, the research framework of the mechanism of population shrinking should be established. Third, the future studies should conduct more discussion about the positive and negative regional effect and also the coping strategies and the regional difference of economic development and environmental situation should be considered in this process.Fourth, some major issues of regional development, including urbanization and urban planning, should be strengthened in regions of population shrinking.