京沪高铁对沿线城市地区间溢出效应的研究——基于2005～2013年地级市面板数据

Disentangling treatment effect, spatial spillover effect and quantile effect:An empirical study of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail

基于2005年～2013年47个地级行政单元的夜间灯光数据和其他社会经济数据,分析京沪高铁的开通对沿线地区的经济影响。研究结果表明,相对于相邻非京沪高铁城市,京沪高铁显著地促进了所在城市的经济增长,这些高铁城市的经济增长也带动了其他相邻城市的经济发展。同时,京沪高铁的开通也显著地促进了京沪高铁经济带的地区间溢出效应。此外,相对经济水平较低的城市,京沪高铁的建成对经济发达城市的促进作用更为明显。这说明随着京沪高铁的开通,经济扩散和经济集聚是同时并存和发展的。研究结果还表明,在此期间,人口集聚是促进京沪高铁经济带发展最重要的因素,其余依次是投资和出口。投资和人口集聚因素对整个经济带的经济促进作用在增强,而出口因素的作用在下降。

To investigate the influence of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail(HSR) on regional economy, its spatial spillover effect and quantile effect along this line, Difference-in-Difference(DID) model, spatial Difference-in-Difference(SDID) model and spatial quantile model are used to analyze the night light data and other socio-economic data from 47 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2013. The results show that Beijing-Shanghai HSR accelerated local economic development in HSR cities more than non-HSR cities and the higher economic level of HSR cities promoted the development of other cities adjacent to HSR cities. The spatial spillover effect is also evident, indicating Beijing-Shanghai HSR’s impact on the overall region. Furthermore, the Beijing-Shanghai HSR promote the development of high income cities more than low-income cities along this line. In addition, population, capital and export have direct and indirect economic effects on cities along the Beijing-Shanghai HSR line. Among them, the impact of population is the most significant, followed by capital and export factors. The effect of capital and population increased over years while the effect of exports on economic growth declined.