长江经济带入境旅游经济发展水平省际差异研究

Study on the difference of tourism economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于区域经济非均衡增长理论,选取1996～2015年长江经济带入境游客人次、旅游外汇收入以及旅游从业人员等旅游经济发展相关指标,计算旅游经济产业规模指数、产业素质指数及其综合指数,运用数理统计分析和ArcGIS地统计模型,对长江经济带入境旅游经济发展水平省际差异的时空演化特征进行实证分析,深入探讨入境旅游经济发展的现实格局与动态趋势。研究表明:1)长江经济带各省区入境旅游经济发展水平的时空差异总体上呈逐步收敛态势;2)长江经济带上中下游三大地区入境旅游经济发展的区域内差异贡献率远强于区域间差异贡献率,下游区域的旅游产业发展对省际差异贡献率最大;3)2015年长江经济带入境旅游产业综合指数呈"U"型拟合曲线,总体上表现出东强西弱,自西向东愈渐增强;北强南弱,自南向北愈渐增强的发展格局,且区域入境旅游经济非均衡发展趋势仍将持续。基于上述研究结论,从优化战略布局、协调区域分工和统筹区域一体化发展等角度,为长江经济带入境旅游经济的持久有序发展提出相应政策建议。

Based on the theory of unbalanced regional economic growth,The paper selected index of tourism economic development in Yangtze River economic belt from 1996 to 2015,the tourism economic index construction includes inbound tourist arrivals international tourism receipts and tourism employment,industrial quality index and comprehensive index,then used the statistical analysis and ArcGIS statistical models and quantitative research methods,the provincial economic development level of tourism spatial differences in the Yangtze River economic evolution of empirical analysis,in-depth study of the realistic pattern and internal mechanism of the development of the tourism industry.The study shows that the overall gradual convergence between tourism economy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt space situation;The Yangtze River Economic Belt on the three stream the development of the regional tourism industry domain difference in contribution rate is far stronger than inter provincial differences,regional tourism industry downstream contribution to the provincial difference rate;The overall performance of a weak east west tourism industry comprehensive index of Yangtze River Economic Zone in 2015,and from the west to the east gradually increased;strong North South weak,development pattern from south to North increasingly enhanced,and the unbalanced development of regional tourism trends will continue.