中国出口结构对其世界市场份额的影响:2001～2012——基于CMSA模型的实证分析

Impact of Chinese Export Structure on Its World Market Share: 2001～2012——An Experimental Research Based on CMSA

近年来中国出口产品竞争力出现了下降趋势,出口结构的优化调整将成为未来提高市场份额的一个重要途径。本文通过恒定市场份额分析(CMSA)模型,基于技术含量的分类方法,分析了2001~2012年间中国出口结构对其世界出口市场份额增长的影响。实证分析结果表明:中国出口市场份额的增长主要来自于出口产品的竞争力效应,但有下降趋势,而结构效应总体呈现为中性,并表现出先负后正的变化趋势,其中产品结构表现为负面影响,市场结构则表现为正面影响。在此基础上,本文为中国出口结构在产品类型和地理方向上的优化调整提供了相应的政策依据。

China has become one of the biggest exporter in the world due to its rapid trade growth during 2001~2012, but it doesn't mean that China has advantage in its export structure. Constant Market Share Analysis(CMSA) has been a standard method used in many researches to analyze what factors infl uence market share. Using CMSA model, this paper analyzes the impact of Chinese export structure on its market share in the world during 2001~2012. Experimental analysis shows that the rapid growth of export in China comes mainly from its competitive effect. Although the structure effect is neutral in general, it appears negative at fi rst and turns positive later. Product structure imposes negative effect, while market structure has positive one. The paper provides policy basis for adjusting exporting product structure in respect of product types and destination areas.