中国与其他金砖国家农产品贸易的成本弹性测度分析与政策建议——基于超越对数引力模型

Measuring and analyzing the agricultural trade cost elasticity between China and the other BRICS:translog gravity

基于Novy(2013)超越对数引力模型对中国与巴西、俄罗斯、南非、印度金砖国家有关农产品的贸易成本弹性进行测度,各项农产品的贸易成本弹性均为正,说明中国与其他金砖国家可以通过降低贸易成本提高贸易量;然而,中国出口与进口贸易成本弹性差值均为负,显示出中国总体不具有相对优势。因此,建议优先考虑中国自身优势农产品,重点积极推进贸易自由化和便利化;同时,针对产业内贸易潜力较大的农产品,深化中国与其他金砖国家的农业分工与合作,分散中国农产品贸易风险,实现对外农产品贸易的多元化和可持续发展。

This paper is on the basis of Novy(2013) translog gravity to measure the agricultural trade cost elasticity in 28 kinds between China and the other BRICS.The result shows all the elasticity is positive,which means reducing trade cost could increase the volume of trade for the other BRICS.However,the difference value between export and import cost elasticity is negative,which implies China does not have a comparative advantage in general.As for the product structure,the superior products should be given priority to promote trade liberalization and facilitation.It exits potential products in intra-industry trade between China and the other BRICS.China could deepen division of labor and cooperation with the other BIRCS to reduce trade risk and realize diversification in sustainable development.