基于贝叶斯网络的装配式建筑构件质量溯源与监控

Quality Traceability and Monitoring of Prefabricated Building Components Based on Bayesian Network

基于贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN),针对装配式建筑每个构件中间环节质量信息,构建了此类建筑工程质量监控和追溯体系,并探析了装配式建筑构件质量影响因素间的因果联系以及质量风险变化规律。首先,通过德尔菲法对装配式建筑构件质量的影响因素进行识别;其次,构建装配式建筑构件质量BN结构,并进行风险分析,以确定主要影响因素与关键影响控制点;最后,通过业务数据和专家调查结果来获得BN中的参数,构建了装配式建筑构件质量的数据采集流程及溯源与监控的BN模型。研究发现:在针对典型装配式建筑构件溯源系统通过BN来追溯与监控构件质量时,若风险高至预设阈值,通过启动溯源与监控机制能够从技术层面保障装配式建筑构件的质量。

The research of this paper is based on the Bayesian Network(BN)for the quality information of the intermediate links of each component in the prefabricated building to construct such construction project quality monitoring and traceability system,and explore the causal relationship between the factors influencing the quality of the components of the prefabricated building and the law of quality risk change.Firstly,Delphi method is used to identify the influencing factors of the quality of prefabricated building components.Secondly,the Bayesian Network structure of the quality of prefabricated building components is constructed,and the risk analysis is carried out to determine the main influencing factors and key influencing control points.Finally,the parameters of Bayesian Network are obtained through business data and expert survey results,and the data acquisition process of the prefabricated components for the quality and the Bayesian model of traceability and monitoring are constructed.Based on this research,in the case that the traceability system of typical prefabricated building components traces and monitors the quality of components through BN,when the risk reaches the preset threshold,the quality of prefabricated building components can be guaranteed from the technical level through the start of traceability and monitoring mechanism.