基于三维洪水演进模拟的洪水溃堤保险定价应用研究

3D flood routing simulation-based study on application of flood insurance pricing for embankment breach

洪水保险是防洪减灾的一项重要非工程措施,保险费率厘定是洪水保险需要解决的关键问题。通过建立耦合VOF法与k-ε紊流模型的三维洪水演进数学模型,对溃堤洪水演进过程进行了数值模拟。在此基础上可以得到溃堤洪水引起的经济损失,与通过CAPM模型得出的风险附加费率,最终确定洪水总保险费率。将该方法应用于某堤坝工程,进行了不同溃堤情况下的洪水保险费的计算,验证了其实用性,旨在为我国溃堤洪水保险定价提出一种新的研究思路。

Flood insurance is an important non-engineering measure for flood control and disaster reduction,while the insurance ratemaking is a key problem necessary to be solved for the flood insurance. Through establishing a 3D flood routing mathematical model with VOF method and k-ε turbulence model,a numerical simulation is made on the process of the flood routing for embankment breach. On the basis of this,the economic loss from the flood of embankment breach can be got and the risk additional premium rate can be obtained through CAPM(Capital Asset Pricing Model) model as well,by which the total premium rate for the flood can be finally determined. Applying this method to an embankment project,the flood insurance premiums under various embankment breach conditions are calculated for verifying its practicability,so as to provide a new study approach for the insurance pricing of the embankment breach in China.