太阳黑子活动周期规律分析及趋势预测

Analysis and trend prediction of sunspot activity cycle

针对太阳黑子活动趋势预测问题,以提高预报可信度、减少预测误差为目标,基于1700年以来太阳黑子相对数月、年资料,依据太阳黑子活动周期特征分析,得出太阳黑子具有100a大周期、11a小周期、100a大周期之间存在2~3个连续低值小周期的活动规律,进而对318a太阳黑子相对数系列进行阶段划分并进行周期性规律特征分析。采用拟合优度和纳什效应系数对2019—2030年太阳黑子相对数所在小周期轨迹段与历史小周期片段进行相关性分析、挑选最相似的历史小周期轨迹段的方法,以预报2019—2030年太阳黑子活动趋势。结果表明:2024年为下一小周期峰值年、2030年为下一小周期谷值年份。研究成果可以为以用太阳黑子相对数作为影响因子进行洪水灾害预报提供基础信息。

The present study aims to explore the problem of sunspot activity trend prediction,including improving the reliability of forecast and reducing the forecast error,the research is an analysis of the characteristics of sunspot activity cycle based on the sunspot relative number data(monthly and annual)since 1700,results show sunspots have large cycle'hundred years',small cycle'11 years',and there are 2~3 consecutive low-value small cycle between'hundred years'large periods.In order to forecast the trend of sunspot activity from 2019 to 2030,The sunspot relative number series are divided into different stages and the cycle characteristics are analyzed,the correlation between the small cycle of the sunspot relative number from 2019 to 2030 and the historical small cycle are analyzed by using the goodness of fit and the Nash effect coefficient,and select the most similar historical small cycle.Through comprehensive analysis that 2024 will be the next small cycle peak year and 2030 will be the next small cycle valley year.The research results can provide basic information for flood disaster prediction using sunspot relative number as the influence factor.