我国产业结构变动对碳排放强度影响的实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Impact of Industrial Structure Changes on the Carbon Intensity in China

通过建立模型,从横向和纵向两个角度分析了我国产业结构对碳排放强度的影响,实证结果表明:产业结构和能源消费结构对碳排放强度的变动有着较大影响;第二产业在经济结构中所占的比重高或煤炭消费占有较大比重的省区其碳排放强度较高,但通过调整和优化产业结构和能源消费结构可以有效达到降低碳排放强度的目的;第二产业对整个社会的碳排放强度的贡献率较大,其内部结构变化对碳排放强度变化有较大影响。因此,我国碳排放强度研究应该重点放在实行结构节能减排上,从调整产业结构、淘汰产能落后的行业、实施产业转移、改善能源利用结构等方面入手实现全国碳减排的目标。

The paper analyzes the impact of industrial structure on carbon intensity,by modeling from the perspective of both horizontally and vertically. The empirical results show that the industrial structure and energy consumption structure have a greater impact on the changes of carbon emissions; The provinces,whose proportion of secondary industry in the economy is high or coal consumption accounts for a large proportion,usually have a higher carbon intensity,and by adjusting and optimizing industrial structure and energy consumption structure,it could reduce the carbon intensity effectively; The second industry has big contributions to the whole community's carbon intensity,and changes in the internal structure of the second industry that has a greater impact on carbon intensity. Therefore,this paper points out that our research on the carbon intensity should focus on the implementation of structural energy saving,from adjusting industrial structure,eliminating backward production capacity of the industry,actively carrying out industrial transfer,and improving the energy structure in order to achieve national objectives of carbon emission reduction.