管理层凌驾内部控制预警模型及其效果研究

Research on Prediction Model and Forecast Efficiency of Management Override of Internal Control

管理层凌驾是内部控制有效运行的最大障碍,是后果极为严重的内部控制重大缺陷.为了给管理层凌驾的公司治理和审计提供主动,文章根据管理层凌驾形成的内在动机和外在条件,通过多元回归获取管理层凌驾的特征变量,构建了效果较好的管理层凌驾预警模型.从判定分析结果来看,Logistic模型和PROBIT模型的判定的准确率是相同的,两种模型的预警效果要优于LPM模型.

Management override not only is the biggest obstacle to make the operation of internal control effective,but also is the internal control defects whose consequence is very serious.In order to provide active for corporate governance and audit of the management override,according to the internal motivation and external conditions of the formation of the management override,we get characteristic variables of the management override through the multiple regression,construct management override early warning model whose effect is good.Through the decision analysis of the result,we find the decision accuracy of Logistic model and PROBIT model is the same,and early warning of two kinds of model is better than the LPM model.