国际房价协同性及波动特征影响因素的实证研究

An Empirical Research on International Housing Prices' Synchronizations and Influencing Factors

经济全球化背景下各国房价波动协同性越来越明显,首先利用Granger因果检验分析了不同国家房价之间的动态影响关系,进而在按地理区域特征进行分组的基础上,考察世界不同区域的国家房价变动对中国房价的相互影响关系.然后用面板变系数模型考察不同影响因素对国际房价波动的作用,结论表明影响国际房价波动的主要因素在于人均GDP的增长,同时在美国货币宽松政策的带动下,全球各主要国家的货币发行量超发也是影响房价上涨的重要原因之一,失业率和汇率在不同国家对房价波动影响的方向和大小差异都较大.

Under the background of economic globalization housing prices' synchronization is more and more obvious.This paper analyses the dynamic relationship between different countries' housing price by use of the Granger causality test.Then it tries to find the influencing relations between China's housing price and other countries' in the world in according to the geographical regional characteristics.Lastly the variable coefficient model of panel data is used to investigate the role of different factors on the international price fluctuation.The results show that the growth of per GDP is the main factors influencing the international housing prices.And the currency circulation is also an important reason under the background of the policy of money easing,especially in the United States.While the impact of unemployment rate and exchange rate and is different in various countries,not only the size but the direction.