应用寿命表相关回归法预测尘肺病人生存年限的研究

Study on Survival Years of Pneumoconiosis Patients by Life Table Correlation-Regression

应用寿命表相关回归法对626例(1963～1990)煤工尘肺死亡趋势及去除合并的肺心病、肺结核后尘肺病人死亡趋势进行分析,结果全死因死亡趋势的回归方程是(?)=2.9878+0.0946X(r=0.9972),理论推算全死因尘肺病人预期生存年限(观察病程)13.2年;去除肺心病、肺结核死因后尘肺病人死亡趋势是(?)=2.7116+0.0814X(r=0.9890),理论推算其预期生存年限(观察病程)17.2年,较全死因预期生存年限延长4年;提示在实际工作中要注意防痨及肺部感染控制问题。

The death tendency of 626 pneumoconiosis cases(1963—1990) among coal miners with or without co-existing cor pulmonale & polmon- ary tuberculosis in Shizuishan Distri- ct was analyzed by means of life table- corrlation regression method.It was shown that the death tendency eq- uation of pneumoconiosis associated with cor pulmonale and pulmonary tu- berculosis was (?)=2.9878+0.0946x(r= 0.9972),and the expectant average survival years(observable course)was calculated out to be 13.2 yers;the de- ath tendency equation excluding cor pulmonale and pulmonary tuberculosis was (?)=2.7116+0.0814x(r=0.9890), the expectant average survival years (observable course)was calculated out to be 17.2 yers,4 yers longer than the 13.2 yers stated above,suggesting that it's important to pay attention to the prevention & control of pulmona- ry tuberculosis and pulmonary infect- ions.