水利工程应急方案直觉模糊多属性决策研究

Study on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making for EmergencyPlan of Water Conservancy Projects

为更准确有效地进行应急救援方案的比选,提高应急决策效率,提出基于区间层次分析法(IAHP)和直觉模糊交叉熵距离的应急方案决策模型。综合考虑水利工程施工特点,基于IAHP确定应急救援评价指标体系并求各指标权重向量;采用直觉模糊交叉熵距离度量模糊评价信息,通过灰色关联分析法对应急方案进行择优排序;最后通过扰动分析,验证了决策模型具有一定的稳定性和可靠性。实例计算表明,救援时效性是应急救援方案决策中需要考虑的最重要因素,灾害现场控制和灾害社会影响在决策中也起到了重要作用。

In order to compare and select the emergency rescue plan more accurately and effectively and improve the efficiencyof emergency decision,an emergency plan decision model based on Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process( IAHP) andintuitionistic fuzzy cross entropy distance is proposed. Considering the characteristics of water conservancy project construction,the evaluation index system of emergency rescue is firstly determined based on IAHP and the weight vectors of each index areobtained,then the intuitionistic fuzzy cross entropy distance metric is used to measure fuzzy evaluation information and the greycontingency analysis method is used to select contingency plans,and finally,the stability and reliability of decision model isproved by disturbance analysis. The calculation results of the example show that the timeliness of rescue is the most importantfactor to be considered in the decision-making of emergency rescue plan,and the disaster site control and disaster social impactalso play an important role in decision-making.