用水总量与经济发展关系探讨

Water use and economic growth: Evidence from provincial panel data in China

选取我国2004—2013年的用水量、经济增长数据,通过分析用水量与人均GDP间的关系,探讨我国各地区用水总量与经济发展的关系。结果表明:我国用水量与经济增长之间并不符合典型的倒U形库兹涅茨曲线特征;通过修正曲线模型,分析得到我国用水总量与人均GDP之间呈U+倒U形的曲线。为剖析我国用水总量与经济增长的演变规律,在模型中引入第一产业增加值在GDP中所占的比例、人均可支配收入以及城镇化率等反应经济发展的指标,衡量产业结构调整、城镇化水平对用水量的影响,为在未来的经济发展过程中合理开发利用水资源提供事实依据。

Based on the analysis of the data of GDP and water use per capita in China from 2004 to 2013,the relationship between them in various areas is investigated. The result shows that the relationship between water use and economic growth does not obey the commonly rule of Kuznets curve which presents like an 'inverted U'curve. By modifying the curve model,the relationship between GDP and total water use per capita presents a 'U+inverted U'pattern. For the indepth analysis of economic growth and evolution of water use in China,the indexes of the value of the primary industry in the proportion of GDP,disposable income per capita and urbanization rate are introduced to the model to measure the influences of industrial structure and urbanization level on the water use. It may provide a more rigorous and scientific basis for the future economic development in the process of rational development and utilization of water resources.