三峡大坝建成前后下游水文气象序列的变异分析

Before and after the Dam was Built Variation Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Sequence Downstream

在气候变化背景下,我国河流及城市降雨的频率和强度都在增加,导致水文要素序列的一致性变差,气象自然灾难频繁发生,如山洪、内涝渍水、农业林业旱灾、酷暑高温等。特别是辐射大型水利枢纽以及梯级水电站群建成后,对气候的影响不可忽视。为了有效了解气候序列的变异情况,采用Hurst系数法,选取三峡大坝下游汉江流域作为研究区,针对7个气象站点30年的气象数据进行变异分析。分析结果表明,气象序列在三峡大坝建成前后有稍微明显的变异情况。此外,也可选取多种分析方法的进行权重分析。

Under the background of climate change,Chinese rivers and urban rainfall frequency and intensity are on the rise,lead to the consistency of hydrological elements series,weather and natural disasters occur frequently,the frequent floods and waterlogging waterlogged,agriculture,forestry,drought and high temperature heat,etc. Especially in the large water conservancy hub,and after the completion of the cascade hydropower station group of the impact on the climate can not be ignored.To effectively understand the sequence variation situation,this article uses the Hurst coefficient method,the selection of the Three Gorges Dam downstream hanjiang basin as study area,30 years of meteorological data for 7 meteorological site mutation analysis. The analysis results show that the meteorological sequences in a slightly obvious variation before and after the dam was built. In addition,also can choose a variety of weight analysis of analysis method.