基于面板数据的中国菲利普斯曲线的非参数估计及分析

An Analysis of China's Phillips Curve based on Nonparametric Estimation

本文通过1978-2010年中国30个省、自治区、直辖市的年度面板数据,考察基于产出缺口和通货膨胀关系的菲利普斯曲线在中国的表现情况。文中对产出缺口型菲利普斯曲线的固定效应非参数模型和半参数模型的估计结果表明:在经济增长的上升期,我国的产出缺口对通货膨胀率有正的影响,但当实际产出偏离潜在产出水平超过10%时,产出缺口和通货膨胀率之间呈负向关系;在经济周期的波谷期,当实际产出对潜在产出的偏离在一定范围内时,产出缺口和通货膨胀率之间呈正相关关系,而当产出缺口对潜在产出的偏离超出该范围时,产出缺口和通货膨胀率呈现正负交替的相关关系。

In this paper the fixed effects nonparametric and semiparametic models on the China's output gap and inflation are estimated with the panel data of 30 provinces from 1978 to 2010.The empirical analysis shows that,China's output gap has positive impact to the inflation rate during the economic growth stage,while it has negative effect on the inflation rate when the real output is more than 10%of potential output.China's output gap also has positive effect on the inflation rate during economic recession when the real output is not less than a certain level of potential output,but the relationship between the output gap and inflation rate change alternately between the positive and negative when the output gap is beyond that range.