我国农村居民消费与经济增长区域差异性的实证分析

An Empirical Study on Regional Differences between Chinese Rural Households' Consumption and Economic Growth

利用1996-2010年27个省(市)的省际面板数据,基于非参数核估计方法,建立农村居民八大消费支出与国内生产总值(GDP)的变系数固定效应半参数计量经济模型,实证分析了我国东、中、西部农村居民消费结构对经济增长影响的区域差异性。计算显示半参数面板数据模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方误差(MSE)相比线性面板数据模型显著的减小,模型分析结果表明,东部地区农村居民各类消费支出对经济增长贡献排列顺序依次为教育文化娱乐-食品-其他杂项-家庭设备-交通通讯-居住-衣着-医疗保健;中部为其他杂项-家庭设备-交通通讯-衣着-医疗保健-教育文化娱乐-食品-居住;西部地区为家庭设备-交通通讯-其他杂项-食品-医疗保健-居住-教育文化娱乐-衣着。最后,根据分析结果提出相关的政策性建议。

In order to quantize the regional differences between Chinese rural households' consumption structure and economic growth,we establish a varying coefficient fixed effect semiparametric econometrics model based on 1996-2010 year economic data and nonpaxametric kernel estimation method.The computing results show that the average absolute error(MAE) and the mean square error(MSE) of the semiparametric panel data model have much less than those of the linear panel data model.For various types of consumption expenditure to economic growth' contribution,they are cultural entertainment,food,other services and commodities,household facilities,communications,housing,clothing and medical care in order in the east;in the central region,they are other services and commodities,household facilities,communications,clothing,medical care,cultural entertainment,food;and in the west,they are housing,communications,other services and commodities,food,medical care,housing,cultural entertainment,clothing.Furthermore,some advices are presented.