广西南宁市社会经济重要指标的组合预报新方法研究

Study on the New Combined Forecasting Method of the Important Socio-economic Indicators in Nanning City of Guangxi

本文研究广西南宁市主要社会经济指标GDP、财政收入、社会消费品零售总额、工业增加值占地区生产总值比重、第三产业增加值、居民人均可支配收入等的预测问题。基于历史数据,提出了一种组合加权预报方法,比较了以方差或标准差构造权重的预报效果。实证表明本文提出的组合预报方法的预报效果比非组合预报好。

This paper studies the prediction of the main economic indicators of Nanning, Guangxi, such as GDP, financial income, total retail sales of consumer goods, the proportion of industrial added value to regional gross domestic product, the added value of tertiary industry, and the per capita disposable income of residents, etc. Based on the historical data, a combined weighted forecasting method is proposed,and the prediction results of the weights constructed by variance or standard deviation are compared.The empirical results show that the combined forecasting method proposed in this paper is better than the uncombined forecasting method.