房地产业对中国城市金融稳定的影响研究——基于空间计量模型的比较分析

Study on the Influence of Real Estate Industry on Urban Financial Stability in China——Based on the Comparative Analysis of Spatial Econometric Model

如何引导房地产业理性发展已成为保障城市金融稳定的关键因素。本文首先构建了房地产业对城市金融稳定的空间影响模型,剖析了房地产业到金融稳定性的五条作用路径;其次,构建了城市金融稳定综合评价指标体系并采用因子分析法得到了城市金融稳定综合指数;最后,将中国35个大中城市分为3类,分别运用空间面板模型方法对3类城市2007年至2015年间,房地产业发展对城市金融稳定的作用进行了数量刻画和对比。结果表明:房地产库存、房屋新开工面积、房地产企业国内贷款、房地产价格、房地产投资等房地产业的典型指标对中国一线、二线和三线城市金融稳定的影响,在方向、力度甚至是显著性上都表现出明显的差异性。研究结论对于提高行业分类调控的有效性,促进房地产业与金融业协调发展等都具有一定的现实意义。

How to guide the rational development of real estate industry has become the key factor to ensure urban financial stability.Firstly,the paper constructs the influence model of real estate industry on urban financial stability,and analyzes five action paths of real estate industry to financial stability.Secondly,the paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system of urban financial stability and obtains comprehensive index of urban financial stability by factor analysis method.Finally,the paper divides the 35 large and medium cities in China into three categories.The spatial panel data model is used to describe and compare the role of real estate development in urban financial stability between 2007 and 2015.The results show that,the influences of real estate typical indicators such as real estate stock,new construction area of real estate,domestic loan of real estate enterprise,real estate price and real estate investment on urban financial stability of first,second and third tier cities in China have discrepancy in direction,degree,and even significance.The conclusions are of great practical significance to improve the effectiveness of the classification regulation and promote the coordinated development of real estate industry and financial industry.