基于分位数回归方法的京津冀地区经济差异统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Region Economic Disparities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Based on the Method of Quantile Regression

改革开放以来,京津冀地区社会经济快速发展,但三地间经济发展水平仍存在较大差距,严重制约了区域经济的健康发展。本文使用分位数回归,结合BIC准则的聚类分析方法,对京津冀地区13个地市1978至2017年间的整体经济发展水平和三大产业发展情况进行统计分析,结果显示:京津唐是京津冀地区发展最快的3个经济单元;京津唐三地总体经济增速差异不大,但北京市的第三产业增速远高于津唐地区,天津市的第二产业增速略高于京唐两地。

Since China’s reform and opening-up,the economy of Bei.jing-Tian.jin-Hebei has developed rapidly,but within the region economic gaps have widened.This paper proposes a clustering analysis method based on quantile regression combined with BIC criterion,and researches the development speed from per-capita GDP and the three industries in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 1978 to 2017 with this method.The results show that the economic development speed of Beijing,Tianjin and Tangshan is faster than other regions’in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and the per-capita GDP growth rate of Beijing,Tianjin and Tangshan is nearly.But the development speed of the tertiary industry of Beijing is much faster then Tianjin and Tangshan,and the development speed of the secondary industry of Tianjin is a little faster then Beijing and Tangshan.