梯级水库群超标洪水的协同应急调度研究

Research on collaborative emergency dispatch of the excessive flood of cascade reservoirs

受全球气候变暖影响,极端天气事件发生频次增加,超标准洪水灾害的突发性、危害性和不可预见性更加突出,使得梯级水库面临的应急处置问题日益凸显,其中大坝溃决或连溃是梯级水库面临的最大威胁。针对超标洪水,实施水库群协同应急调度,是发挥水库综合利用效益的有效手段之一。本文选取最高水位最低化准则作为超标洪水协同应急调度模型的目标函数,采用逐步优化算法求解梯级水库群超标洪水协同应急调度模型,对梯级水库群超标洪水应急调度方案进行了有益的探索,并以大渡河流域瀑布沟水库、深溪沟水库和枕头坝一级水库为例,对其超标洪水过程进行调度计算,验证了上述模型的合理性和可靠性。结果表明:通过梯级水库群的协同应急调度,各水库在洪水前期预泄水库水量,尽可能腾出更多的水库库容,便于迎接后期可能发生的洪水,尽可能地降低各水库的水位,有效确保梯级水库群的防洪安全。研究成果对各大流域梯级水库群超标洪水的应急调度机制的建立具有重要的理论意义和工程实践价值。

Due to the impact of global climate changing,the frequency of extreme weather events has increased significantly.The suddenness,harmfulness and unpredictability of the excessive floods are more prominent,posing a great challenge to the collaborative emergency dispatch and the safety of cascade reservoirs.And the dam break or even continuous collapse is the biggest threat to the cascade reservoir.In response to the excessive flooding,it is one of the effective means to realize the comprehensive utilization efficiency of reservoirs to carry out emergency dispatch of cascade reservoirs.In this paper,the maximum water level minimization criteria is selected as the objective function of the collaborative emergency dispatching model for excessive flood,and the Progress Optimality Algorithm method is used to solve the model.Taking the Pubugou Reservoir,the Shenxigou Reservoir and the Zhentouba-I Reservoir in the Dadu River Basin as an example,an emergency dispatching plan for the excessive flood of the cascaded reservoirs in this basin is proposed,the process of its exceeding flood control is calculated.The rationality and reliability of the above model are verified.The results indicate that through the collaborative emergency dispatching of cascade reservoirs,each reservoir will pre-discharge the water in the pre-flood stage,freeing up more reservoir storage capacity,facilitate to meet the possible flood in the later stage,reduce the water level of each reservoir as much as possible,and effectively ensure the flood control safety of cascade reservoirs.The research results have important theoretical significance and engineering practical value for the establishment of emergency dispatch mechanism for the excessive flood of cascade reservoirs in major river basins.