基于消费视角的我国中等收入群体人口分布及变动测度

The Measurement of Distribution and Change of the Middle-income Group in China from the Perspective of Consumption

我国倡导扩大中等收入群体比重并不仅仅是要增加达到中等收入的人群,而是要培育稳定的中坚力量,以保障社会的稳定和经济的发展。“中等收入群体”本质上应是相对富有、生活稳定、具有较高生活质量的人群。梳理主流消费理论文献可发现,家庭人均消费水平指标较之收入指标更能科学分析中等收入群体。采用北京大学中国社会科学调查中心2010年~2012年的中国家庭动态跟踪调查数据,运用对数样条估计法建立M-曲线,探究我国中等收入群体人口分布特征及变动情况,发现我国中等收入群体的人口占比三年中几乎没有变化,但上中等收入群体的人口占比呈先增加后减少的变动特征,而传统基于收入视角测算的中等收入群体比重被低估。

The aim of our country's advocating of expanding the middle-income group is not only to increase the number of that group,but also to establish a robust backbone that can guarantee the stability of the society and the growth of the economy. The word 'middle-income group'in essence refers to those with stable and superior living conditions. After a brief navigation among those main-trend documents on consumption,it can be found that the family per capita consumption level indicator performs better in analyzing the middle-income group than the revenue index. Establishing the M-curve by using the logarithmic spline estimation method according to the dynamic tracking survey data of Chinese family from 2010 to 2012 by Chinese Social Science Research Center of Beijing university,the paper finds that the proportion of our country's middle-income group has stayed steadily during the 3 years,but the ratio of the upper level income group shows a fall-after-rise trend,and the proportion of the middle-income group based on the traditional perspective of salary is underestimated.