中国房价上涨对城市扩张的驱动效应研究——来自69个大中城市门限模型的经验证据

A Study on the Driving Effect of Rising House Prices on Urban Expansion in China:The Empirical Evidence of Threshold Model in 69 Large and Medium-sized Cities

我国房价正经历艰难的理性回归之路,城市扩张也正面临着转型。基于非线性视角,运用门限模型对69个大中城市房价与城市扩张的关系进行综合测度,分析不同房价收入比地区的房价波动对城市扩张的非线性影响机制。研究结果表明:房价波动对城市扩张的影响路径存在拐点,当房价处于低增长机制时,房价上涨对城市整体扩张有显著促进作用,反之,其作用逐渐减弱甚至出现挤出效应;房价上涨对城市土地扩张具有持续正向推动效应,而对城市人口扩张具有显著的溢出效应,即仅当房价处在低速增长阶段时,房价上涨才有利于城市人口的集聚;在不同房价收入比城市,房价上涨对城市扩张的非线性影响路径和效果存在异质性。因而政府应以房地产市场调控为抓手,促进房价合理回归,实现城市的有序扩张,推动城市人口和土地的协调增长。

China's housing prices are experiencing a difficult path of rational regression,and urban expansion is also facing the transformation. Based on the nonlinear perspective,using the threshold model for the relationship between housing prices in 69 large and medium-sized cities with the expansion of the city comprehensive measure,the paper makes a nonlinear analysis of influence mechanism of different real income on the price fluctuation of the expansion of the city area. The results show that there is an inflection point in the influence path of price fluctuations on the expansion of the city. When prices in the low growth mechanism,housing prices have a significantly promoting effect on the whole city's expansion,and conversely,its effect gradually weakens or even leads to a crowding-out effect; housing prices have continued to promote the positive effect on the city's land expansion,and have significant spillover effects on the city's population expansion only in the low growth stage; in the city with different real income,there is heterogeneity in housing prices between the expansion of the city's path and the nonlinear effect. Therefore,the government should take the real estate market regulation as the starting point to promote the reasonable return of housing prices,realize the orderly expansion of the city,and promote the coordinated growth of urban population and land.