贸易引力、社会嵌入与文化产品出口——来自中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的经验分析

Trade Gravity,Social Embedding and Cultural Product Export:An Empirical Analysis from China and the Countries along the Belt and Road

综合社会嵌入性理论与经典贸易引力模型理论,将贸易引力模型中的经济因素作为层一变量,将社会嵌入性理论中的认知、关系、结构、文化和政治嵌入作为层二变量,采用多层统计分析工具,运用2002年~2014年中国与27个"一带一路"沿线国家的文化贸易数据,实证分析影响中国文化产品出口的核心因素及作用路径。结果表明:中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的核心文化产品出口存在较大差异,且这种差异多由各国的社会嵌入性因素造成;GDP、贸易条件、科技应用水平以及认知、文化和结构嵌入对中国文化产品出口具有显著的直接影响,文化和结构嵌入对中国文化产品出口还兼具间接影响;文化嵌入会削弱GDP对文化贸易的正向影响,结构嵌入能增强GDP对文化贸易的正向影响、削弱科技应用水平对文化贸易的正向影响。因而推进"一带一路"发展战略,增强中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间的文化交流与贸易往来,既要考虑经济因素,也要考虑社会嵌入性因素。

Integrating the social embedding theory and the trade gravity model,the paper takes the economic factors in trade gravity model as the first level of variables,and meanwhile,takes the cognition,relation,structure,culture and politics embedding as the second one. By using multilevel statistical analysis tools and the cultural trade data of China and 27 countries along the Belt and Road from 2002 to 2014,the paper analyzes the key factors influencing the export of China's cultural products and function pathway with empirical method. The result shows that there is a great difference in the export of China's core cultural products in the countries along the Belt and Road,and most of the differences are caused by the factors of social embedding. The significant and direct factors influencing the export of China's cultural products include GDP,terms of trade,science and technology level,cognitive embedding,cultural embedding and structural embedding,while cultural embedding and structural embedding also have indirect effect. Cultural embedding can weaken the positive relationship between GDP and cultural trade,while structural embedding can strengthen it,even though it can weaken the positive relationship between science and technology level and cultural trade. Therefore,promoting the development strategy of the 'Belt and Road'to strengthen cultural exchanges and trade between China and the countries along it should consider not only the economic factors but also the social embedding ones.