易地扶贫搬迁模式与农户生计资本变动——基于准实验的政策评估

The Relocation Mode of Off-site Poverty Alleviation and the Change of Household Livelihood Capital: Policy Evaluation Based on Quasi Experiment

在我国生态环境脆弱和自然资源匮乏集中连片的特困地区实现精准扶贫、精准脱贫,使搬迁农户"搬得出、稳得住、能致富",对解决区域性整体贫困和全面建成小康社会具有重要的现实意义。基于云南省怒江州贫困农户易地扶贫搬迁准实验数据,采用DID模型对绝对贫困户和相对贫困户在不同易地扶贫搬迁模式前后的生计资本变动状况进行政策评估,发现易地扶贫搬迁总体上有利于提升农户生计资本。其中,依托企业带动安置模式(模式一)和山上搬山下安置模式(模式三)对提高贫困农户生计资本具有正向促进作用,有利于降低农户易地扶贫搬迁交易成本,并实现农户"搬得出、稳得住、能致富"的目的;依托小城镇集中安置模式(模式二)对纯农型农户生计资本变动不存在显著影响,但有利于提升农兼型和兼农型农户的生计资本;依托退耕还林逐步安置模式(模式四)对易地扶贫搬迁绝对贫困户生计资本不存在显著影响,但却有利于提升农兼型为主的相对贫困户的生计资本,造成"搬富不搬穷"的现象。此外,人力资本提升贫困农户生计资本的作用最为显著,物质资本、自然资本、金融资本和社会资本次之。

It has a great practical significance to solve the overall regional poverty and build a well-off society by the relocation of farmers with the mode of 'move out,live firmly,and can become rich'to achieve the goal of accurate and precise poverty alleviation in the poor areas of China where ecological environment is fragile and natural resources are scare. Based on the quasi experiment data of relocation of farmers in Nujiang in Yunnan,and using DID model,the paper evaluates the policy effect between absolute poverty and relative poverty households in remote poverty before and after the relocation with their livelihood capital changes. The results show that: the relocation of off-site poverty alleviation is conducive to improving the farmers' livelihood capital in general. The enterprise-driven mode( mode 1) and the mountain-top-to-foot resettlement mode( mode 3) have a significant positive effect on poor farmers' livelihood capital,which can reduce transaction costs and achieve the relocation goal of farmers' 'move out,live firmly,and can become rich'; Though small town-centralized resettlement mode( mode 2) has no significant effect on pure agriculture-based livelihoods' capital change,it is conducive to enhancing the livelihood capital of mainly agricultural and mainly non-agricultural farmers; although the mode of returning-farming land-to-forestry resettlement( mode 4) has no significant effect on the livelihood capital of the absolutely poor farmers,but has a significant effect on enhancing the livelihood capital of the relatively poor households who are mainly non-agricultural farmers,leading to the result that 'move the rich but not move the poor'phenomenon. In addition,human capital has the most significant effect on the promotion of farmers' livelihood capital,and physical capital,natural capital,financial capital and social capital are the next.