人力资本积累与经济增长——基于投资流量效应与老龄化存量效应视角

Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth——From the Perspective of Investment Flow Effect and Population Aging Stock Effect

基于三部门的人力资本驱动OLG模型,利用1995年～2016年、1998年～2015年两个时段的省级面板数据,采用系统GMM方法,探讨人力资本积累中的投资流量效应与老龄化存量效应对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:老年人存活率或预期寿命增加能显著促进经济增长;当期和滞后期的私人人力资本投资的GDP占比或收入占比提高能促进经济增长,但当期公共人力资本投资的GDP占比或收入占比与经济增长显著负相关,滞后期公共人力资本投资的GDP占比或收入占比与经济增长显著正相关,说明老龄化对经济增长有积极的一面;公共人力资本投资效果具有滞后性,因而政府在决策时需有长远考虑;非常规的经济刺激政策对我国经济向人力资本驱动的发展模式转变有负作用,因而应慎用。

Using provincial panel data of 1995-2016 and 1998-2015 and system-GMM,this paper analyzes the influences of investment flow effect and population aging stock effect of human capital accumulation on economic growth based on the three sectors’ OLG growth model driven by human capital. The findings are as follows: the improvement of old people’s survival rate or life expectancy would stimulate the economic growth;both current and lagged ratio of private human capital investment and GDP or income have positive influence on economic growth;the current ratio of GDP in public human capital investment or that of income is negatively correlated with economic growth;the lagged ratio of GDP in public human capital investment and or that of income is positively correlated with economic growth. This shows that population aging has positive effect on economy;there is lagged effect of public human capital investment,and the government should make decision for the long run. The special economic stimulus policy in crisis would impose inverse impacts on the transition driven from physical capital investment to human capital investment. Therefore,the government should think it over when enacting stimulus policy.