对外开放背景下广东全要素生产率的变动轨迹与演进特征

The Change Trajectory and Evolution Characteristics of Guangdong Total Factor Productivity in the Context of Opening up

广东省是中国改革开放的排头兵,近年来其经济增长放缓引发了人们对外向型经济可持续增长的担忧。为有效发挥对外开放提升全要素生产率的作用,促进经济持续健康增长,在测算广东省1990年～2016年全要素生产率的基础上,研究FDI、进口和出口依存度对广东全要素生产率的影响轨迹与演进特征。实证结果表明:从影响轨迹来看,随着FDI、进口和出口依存度的上升,全要素生产率呈先上升后下降的倒U型变动轨迹;从演进特征来看,随着时间的推移,FDI、进口和出口对全要素生产率的正向作用区间在缩小。随着改革开放的深入推进,FDI、进口和出口应从量的扩张走向质的提升,才能有效促进全要素生产率的增长。

Guangdong is the pioneer of China’s reform and opening up.In recent years,the slowdown of economic growth in Guangdong has aroused concerns about the sustainable growth of export-oriented economy.In order to effectively play a role of opening to the outside world for the promotion of total factor productivity and the sustainable economic growth,this paper calculates the total factor productivity(TFP)of Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2016 by using the OLS regression method,and investigates the influence track and evolution characteristics of FDI,import and export dependence on TFP.The empirical results show that from the perspective of impact trajectory,with the increase of FDI,import and export dependence,total factor productivity shows an inverted U-shaped change trajectory,which rises first and then decreases;from the perspective of evolution characteristics,with the passage of time,the positive impact interval of FDI,import and export on total factor productivity is narrowing.Therefore,with the deepening of reform and opening up,FDI,imports and exports must be expanded from quantity to quality in order to effectively maintain its role of promoting total factor productivity.