兼并重组能有效化解产能过剩吗——基于PSM-DID方法的实证检验

Can Merger and Reorganization Resolve Overcapacity:Based on PSM-DID Empirical Test

基于2003—2016年上市公司的兼并重组数据,采用双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID)对以兼并重组手段化解产能过剩的有效性进行实证检验。研究结果表明:兼并重组整体上不能有效化解产能过剩;企业性质对企业兼并重组的有效性具有重要影响,其中民营企业的自发兼并重组行为有利于化解产能过剩,国有企业的行政性兼并重组行为化解产能过剩的效果不明显;重工业企业和产能过剩企业不宜采取兼并重组手段化解产能过剩,轻工业企业和产能不过剩企业以兼并重组手段化解产能过剩效果明显。因而政府应减少直接干预企业兼并重组的行为,并从体制上消除国有企业的预算软约束。

Based on the merger and reorganization data of listed companies from 2003 to 2016 and the PSM-DID method,this paper aims to test the effectiveness of the merger and reorganization in resolving overcapacity.The results show that:the merger and reorganization cannot effectively resolve overcapacity on the whole;the effectiveness is affected by the difference in the subject of merger and reorganization;specifically,the spontaneous merger and reorganization of private enterprises is conducive to resolving overcapacity,while the effect is less significant in the administrative merger and reorganization of state-owned enterprises under government intervention;heavy industry and enterprises with excess capacity should not adopt merger and reorganization to resolve overcapacity,while light industry and non-overcapacity enterprises can resolve overcapacity effectively through merger and reorganization.Therefore,the government should reduce the direct intervention of merger and reorganization,and systematically eliminate the soft budget constraints of state-owned enterprises.