纵向财政失衡会影响经济波动吗——来自分税制改革后的中国省级证据

Will Vertical Fiscal Imbalances Affect Economic Fluctuations:Evidence from China’s Provinces since the Reform of Tax-sharing System

财政政策是国家宏观调控的重要手段,但分税制改革引致的纵向财政失衡弱化了财政政策的调控作用。基于中国1994—2017年29个省份的面板数据,对纵向财政失衡与经济波动之间的关系进行实证分析,发现纵向财政失衡是导致我国经济波动的重要因素,并通过投资冲击、技术冲击和货币供给冲击等途径对经济波动产生正向促进作用;纵向财政失衡对经济波动的影响存在时序异质性和环境异质性;纵向财政失衡的变化周期先于经济波动的变化周期,并呈现一定的周期同步性。

Fiscal policy is an important means of national macro-control.However,the vertical fiscal imbalance caused by the tax-sharing reform has weakened the regulatory role of fiscal policy.Based on the panel data of 29 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 1994 to 2017 in China,this paper uses the dynamic panel model to empirically analyze the relationship between vertical fiscal imbalance and economic fluctuations.The results show that vertical fiscal imbalance is an important factor leading to China’s economic fluctuations;it also positively promotes economic fluctuations through investment shocks,technological shocks and money supply shocks.There are temporal heterogeneity and environmental heterogeneity in the influence of vertical fiscal imbalance on economic fluctuation;the change cycle of vertical fiscal imbalance precedes the change cycle of economic fluctuation and presents a certain cycle synchronization.