广西政府办中医医院患者住院费用ARIMA模型预测

Study on prediction of hospitalization cost of Guangxi government-run traditional Chinese medicine hospital based on ARIMA model

目的人均医疗费用是以货币形式评价患者疾病经济负担的重要指标,能系统反映一个国家或地区医疗服务需求及购买力情况。本研究旨在探索并预测广西政府办中医类医院住院患者疾病经济负担变化趋势。方法采用SPSS 17.0对2002-2017年广西政府办中医类医院患者人均住院费用进行统计描述,基于Eviews 6(Econometrics Views 6)建立差分整合移动平均自回归模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)预测2018-2022年患者人均住院费用值。结果 2002-2017年广西政府办中医类医院患者人均住院费用呈明显线性增长趋势,ARIMA(1,2,2)模型下的2018-2022年人均住院费用值达7 750.29、8 220.24、8 706.61、9 210.00和9 730.98元,年均增幅4.45%。结论通过广西中医类医院信息网升级建设以构建科学化费用监测体系。通过加大政府针对性投入、改革支付体系多样化、提高中医法制化建设,切实缓解人均住院负担急剧增长。

OBJECTIVE Per capita medical expenditure is an important index to evaluate patients′disease economic burden in monetary form.It can systematically reflect the demand and purchasing power of medical services in a country or region.This paper aims to explore development characteristics and trend of hospitalization burden of patients in traditional Chinese medicine institutions in Guangxi.METHODS A statistical description of the per capita hospitalization cost of patients was performed in Guangxi government-run traditional Chinese medicine hospitals from 2002 to 2017 by using SPSS17.0.It was predicted the average hospitalization expenses from 2018 to 2022 with autoregressive moving average(ARIMA)model established based on Eviews 6 software.RESULTS From 2002 to 2017,the per capita hospitalization expenses in traditional Chinese medicine institutions in Guangxi showed an obvious improved.Based on ARIMA(1,2,2)predicted that the respectively average hospitalization cost of patients in traditional Chinese medicine institutions in Guangxi is7 750.29,8 220.24,8 706.61,9 210.00 and 9 730.98 yuan from 2018 to 2022.CONCLUSIONS A scientific cost monitoring system is constructed by perfecting the upgrading construction of information network of traditional Chinese medicine institutions in Guangxi.By strengthening the construction of legal system,increasing the government′s targeted fancial input,and reforming the payment system,it alleviates the rapid increase of per capita hospital expenses burden.