2016-2018年天津市和平区社区腹泻药物监测数据分析

Analysis of drug surveillance data of diarrhea in Heping District of Tianjin City during 2016-2018

目的症状监测作为临床病例的一个补充,是对传染病早期预警的有效方法,且数据上报的总体质量较好。本研究通过对法定报告肠道传染病和社区腹泻药物销售情况的各项数据进行监测,分析两者的相关性,为辖区肠道传染病疫情进行预警预测。方法选取天津市和平区新兴街作为监测点,2016-01-01-2018-12-31对新兴街内社区卫生服务中心及所有药店开展社区腹泻药物销售量监测,每日收集腹泻相关药物的销售情况;由辖区疾病预防控制中心专业人员,通过传染病报告信息管理系统收集肠道传染病发病数;采用3周移动平均方法对社区腹泻药物销售数据与同期辖区肠道传染病报告病例进行趋势分析。结果天津市和平区2016-2018年共监测腹泻药物销售总量为27 055人次,其中药店销售量为23 671人次,占87.5%,社区卫生服务中心销售量为3 384人次,占12.5%;同期肠道传染病报告病例总数为2 115例,其中细菌性痢疾321例,伤寒/副伤寒3例,其他感染性腹泻病1 791例;监测发现社区腹泻药物销售量高峰出现在每年的6~8月份,肠道传染病发病呈现明显的季节性,高发季为每年的6~9月份。通过3周移动平均法分析可知,社区腹泻药物销售数据高峰比同期肠道传染病发病数高峰提前1周,对肠道传染病发病数与提前1周的腹泻药物销售量进行Spearman相关分析,结果显示两者呈正相关,rS=0.612,P<0.001。结论肠道传染病发病数与提前1周的腹泻药物销售量存在相关性,社区腹泻药物销售量可提前1周对肠道传染病进行预测预警。

OBJECTIVE As a supplement to clinical cases,symptom monitoring is an effective method for early warning of infectious diseases,and the overall quality of data reported is good.In this study,the data of the legal reports on the sales of intestinal infectious diseases and diarrhea drugs in communities are monitored,and the relationship between them is analyzed,so as to provide early warning and prediction for the epidemic situation of intestinal infectious diseases in the jurisdiction.METHODS Diarrhea drug sales were surveyed in Xinxing Street Community Health Service Center and all drugstores from January 1,2016 to December 31,2018.The daily sales of diarrhea-related drugs were collected;the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases was collected by the professionals of the CDC through the infectious disease reporting information management system.Trend analysis was carried out with the reported cases of intestinal infectious diseases in the same period.RESULTS From 2016 to 2018,the total sales of diarrhea drugs in Heping District was 27 055,of which 23 671(87.5%)were sold in pharmacies and 3 384(12.5%)in community health service centers.During the same period,2 115 cases of intestinal infectious diseases were reported,including 321 cases of bacillary dysentery,3 cases of typhoid/paratyphoid and 1 791 cases of other infectious diarrhea diseases.The peak of diarrhea drug sales occurred in June to August of each year.The incidence of intestinal infectious diseases showed obvious seasonality.The high incidence season was June to September every year.Through three-week moving average analysis,it was found that the peak of diarrhea drug sales data in the community was one week ahead of the peak of the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in the same period.The Spearman correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases and the sales of diarrhea drugs one week earlier,rS=0.612,P<0.001.CONCLUSIONS There is a correlation between the sales of diarrhea drugs one week earlier and the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases.Community diarrhea drug sales can predict and warn intestinal infectious diseases one week earlier.