山区城市化进程与服务业增长的互动关系——以粤北山区韶关市为例

On Relationship between Urbanization and Growth of Service Sector of Mountainous Area: A Case Study of Shaoguan

以韶关为例,采用Johanson协整检验、向量误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数等计量方法对粤北山区城市化进程与服务业增长之间的互动关系进行实证研究,发现两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。短期内,韶关市城市化水平对两者的均衡关系呈反向修正机制;但从两者的长期动态关系来看,两者相互促进的良性互动关系并未形成,城市化对服务业的促进作用要大于服务业对城市化的促进作用。加快山区城市化和服务业发展应采用有效策略。

Based on the data of Shaoguan, the paper applied the Johanson cointegration test, vector error correction model and the impulse response function to do empirical research on the interaction between the urbanization and growth of service sector in mountainous areas of guangdong, it found that there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between them, in the short term, the urbanization shows an inversely correction mechanism on their equilibrium relationship, however, from the long-term dynamic view, there is no obvious mutual promoting effect between the urbanization and growth of service sector, and the promoting effect of urbanization on the growth of service sector is stronger than the growth of service sector on the urbanization. Finally, the paper proposes some advices to promote the development of urbanization and service sector in mountainous areas of guangdong.