震后大型商场人群疏散演化博弈分析

Study on Crowd Evacuation Evolutionary Games in Large Commercial Malls After Earthquakes

地震发生后,为了减少地震带来的损失,大型商场人群需要及时进行疏散.主要对商场中疏散出口位置上的疏散行为进行研究.首先分析了地震后商场人群的疏散场景;然后从疏散心理效用角度构建了疏散行为模型,并基于演化博弈分析人群疏散行为演化情况,结果表明,自组织情况下,商场人群不能向有序疏散演化;而通过商场工作人员引导疏散,修正模型,其引导力度决定着疏散演化的结果;最后,通过仿真分析,说明商场地震人群疏散演化博弈模型的适用性.

After the earthquake, crowd in large commercial malls need to be evacuated in time in order to reduce the losses caused by the earthquake. In this paper, the crowd evacuation behavior of the exit area of shopping malls, is researched. Firstly, the crowd evacuation scene after earthquake is analyzed, and the characteristics of the crowd evacuation behavior under the organization is explored. Secondly, the evacuation behavior model based on the utility from the evacuation psychological is constructed, and from the perspective of evolutionary game theory, the evacuation behavior evolution is analyzed, whose results show that the crowds in shopping malls cannot evolve to orderly evacuation;instead, they can evacuate by the guide of the commercial mall staff, whose guidance strength determines the result of evacuation evolution. Finally, the applicability of the earthquake evacuation evolutionary game model is described by the numerical analysis.