“一带一路”建设路径的展望研究——基于国家福利的视角

Research on the Forecast Development Path of Belt and Road Initiative——based on the view of country's welfare

"一带一路"建设取得了显著成果,专家建议向南或向东方向合作发展可取得更大经济效益,同时可吸引日本参与.构建了43国40部门国际贸易模型,模拟关税为零后计算得到各国的福利、真实工资和贸易变化量.模拟结果显示东盟六国、韩国的福利比其他国家要高,同时中日韩自贸区的模拟建成将大幅促进中国进出口增长并提高三国的福利.因此,中国应坚持多边主义和贸易自由化,以更加包容、互惠和共享的大国姿态容纳各国,主动向南和向东发展并与各国的项目对接,更好地促进"一带一路"的建设和发展,实现中华民族的伟大复兴.

The Belt and Road Initiative has gained great achievements.Some experts suggest that China would obtain better economic benefits if it focus more on the southward and eastward development of the initiative,and China should attract Japan to attend the initiative.This paper constructs an international trade model which includes 43 countries and their 40 departments.By simulating the zero-tariff between nations,this paper calculates the results of the changes of each country’s welfare,real wages and changes of trade volume.The results of the simulation show that the countries of ASEAN(the Association of Southeast Asian Nations)and Korea get higher gains than other nations.Simultaneously,the simulation of CJKFTA(China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement)shows that CJKFTA will promote greatly China’s import and export with Korea and Japan,and improve the welfare of the three countries.Therefore,China should positively.hold multilateralism and trade liberalization,and accommodate other countries with more tolerant,mutualism and sharing together.China should also positively develop southward and eastward and the project connection between the countries in both directions,in order to promote better the construction and development of the Belt and Road Initiative,and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.