经济增长与水环境变化耦合性研究

The Coupling Relationship Between Economic Development and Water Environment Change

以青岛市北安镇及镇内的宋化泉水库为研究对象,首先分析北安镇地区总产值、第一经济产值等经济特征变化规律,然后对宋化泉水库的COD、总氮、富营养化指数等水环境特征进行分析,然后选择Kendall时间趋势检验法检验宋化泉水库水环境变化趋势,选择Daniel趋势检验法进行对比验证,最后通过设计置信度区间和分析显著性指数研究水环境变化与各经济产业发展之间的相关性.研究主要得出以下结论:1)通过时间趋势检验法分析得到氟化物、氯化物和Chla为表征宋化泉水库水环境的特征污染物;2)水库水环境的水质发生了显著变化,如氟化物、氯化物和Chla等指标呈显著上升趋势,且与各社会经济指标呈高度显著正相关;3)在结合实际情况的基础上,通过相关性分析得出氯化物、氟化物和第二产业,Chla与农林牧渔业之间的相关性具有科学性,氯化物与第一产业、氟化物与第三产业的相关性仅为数学上的偶然现象,不是必然规律.研究方法和结论可为优化城镇经济产业与水环境治理提供科学指导和理论支撑.

Taking Beian town in Qingdao city and Songhuaquan Reservoir in Beian town as the research objects,the economic characteristics of Beian town were analyzed at first.Then the water quality indicators of Songhuaquan Reservoir were analyzed.The water quality indicators included COD,TN,eutrophication index,etc.And then the method of Kendall Time Trend Test and Daniel Time Trend Test were selected to test and compare the water environmental variation trend of Songhuaquan Reservoir,respectively.At last,the coupling relationship between water environmental variation and economic characteristics were analyzed by setting confidence interval and analyzing significance index.Such conclusions have been drawn as followings:1)Fluoride,chloride and Chla were selected as the characteristic pollutants for the water environment of Songhuaquan Reservoir;2)The water environment quality of Songhuaquan Reservoir changed dramatically,like fluoride,chloride and Chla rising increasingly and keeping a high significant positive correlation with social economic indexes;3)Based on the actual situation and through further analysing,it was obtained that the coupling relationship between fluoride,chloride and the secondary industry,and the coupling relationship between Chla and agriculture animal husbandry and fishery were scientific.However,the coupling relationship between chloride and primary industry,and the coupling relationship between fluoride and tertiary industry were just an ancient phenomenon in mathematics,not an inevitable rule.The research methods and conclusions can provide a scientific guidance and theoretical support on sustainable development and water environment management of small towns.