基于多元逆模糊数的模糊时间序列预测方法

A Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Method Based on Multivariate Inverse Fuzzy Number

在相关文献提出的模糊时间序列预测模型IFTSFM的基础上,定义了多元逆模糊数(Multivariate Inverse Fuzzy Number)的概念,建立了基于多元逆模糊数的模糊时间序列预测模型.应用这一模型,将海南省1997-2016年度旅游总收入历史数据分为两组,分别进行了对历史数据拟合模拟和对未知数据的预测计算,取得了令人满意的结果.

Based upon the previous work[8]towards fuzzy time series forecasting model,we proposed a new concept as Multivariate Inverse Fuzzy Number(MIFN)within this study,thereby established a fuzzy time series forecasting model based on the MIFN.We further applied this model.to the process of forecasting the general tourism income of Hainan province of China.Data regarding tourism income of Hainan between the year from 1997 to 2016 were collected and divided into two groups,a fitting simulation of previous data as well as a prediction of future trends were obtained according to the model.