基于零膨胀回归模型的城市轨道交通触网故障频次研究

Research on the Contact Line System Fault Frequency of Urban Rail Transit Based on Zero-expansion Regression Model

城市轨道交通触网故障后果严重,但发生频次较少,数据分析困难.零膨胀计数模型(ZIM)对零值大的数据集具有良好的适用性.针对上海地铁近4年运营过程中积累的触网故障数据进行统计分析,采用ZIM模型中运用最广泛的ZIP模型和ZINB模型进行建模,对比模型的4项评价指标,并进行模型命中率、泛化能力、释义合理性的评价.研究表明,ZINB模型能够对触网故障数据进行更好的拟合.基于模型结果,对城市轨道交通触网系统的安全运营策略及维修保养制度提出建议.

The consequences of the fault in the contact line system of urban rail transit are serious,but the frequency of occurrence is low,so it is difficult to analyze the fault.The zeroexpansion count model(ZIM)has good applicability to zero-valued data sets.We analyzed statistical data on contact line system fault accumulated during the recent four-year operation of Shanghai Metro,tried the most widely used ZIP model and ZINB model,compared the four evaluation indicators,and evaluated model hit rate,generalization ability,interpretation rationality separately.The research shows that the ZINB model can better fit the contact line system fault data.Based on the results of the model,suggestions are given for the safety operation strategy and maintenance system of the urban rail transit contact line system.