陕西省榆林市水资源人口承载规模研究

Study on Population Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yulin City,Shaanxi Province

榆林市地处于我国生态脆弱带和水土流失严重地带,属重度缺水地区,其能源化工产业的迸发式增长造成用水需求和水污染的巨大压力。水资源已经成为决定其人口和产业发展规模的刚性约束条件。针对这类资源性缺水的能源型地区,开展水资源人口承载能力评价已成为促进可持续发展的必要研究工作。通过对1956—2010年的水文资料与1980年以来的人口数据进行统计分析,对未来人口和需水量进行预测,基于城市人口适度发展规模模型,结合GIS技术,利用超载度的指标衡量并预测了榆林市2020年人口规模及承载状态。结果表明:榆林市水资源的人口规模现处于轻度超载状态,超载人口8.14万人,超载度为1.02,超载度随时间逐渐加重,超载人口数量成倍数增长;到2015年,水资源能够承载的人口适度规模与预测结果相比,超载人口达15.99万人,超载度达到1.04;到2020年,超载人口约30.93万人,超载度增加为1.08;超载人口主要以城镇人口超载为主,2015年、2020年的超载度分别为1.89和1.73,农村人口处于可承载状态,并呈现递减趋势。由此可见,在现有的人口集聚模式下,城镇人口的增长势必加重人水矛盾,城镇化与水资源相互制约的作用会更加突显。

Being located in vulnerable ecological and soil erosion zone,Yulin City is highly lack of water resources.Moreover,the increasing energy industry causes greatly pressure on water demand and water pollution.Therefore,the deficient of water resources has limited the future expansion of population and industry.Assessing population carrying capacity of water resources is a necessary and urgent research topic for the shortage-of-water-type energy cities.Based on the prediction model of optimum population development size,by using hydrological data,also with the demographic data from 1956to 2010,this paper analyzes and predicts the urban moderate scale under the limit of the water resources in the future in Yulin City.The results are as followings:there is exponentially growing tendency of overloaded water resources;in the scenario of2010,the overload rate of population size is 1.02;by 2015and 2020,the overload rates of population size will grow up to 1.04and 1.08,respectively;the oversized population mainly comes from cities and towns,the overload rate for cities and towns of 2015and 2020will be 1.89and 1.73.However,the population from rural area annually decreases.With the current population agglomeration trend,the conflict between water deficiency and population growth would be more intense in urban areas,while suburban areas could have a great potential to carry population.In view of the facts mentioned above,the population size should be controlled in a reasonable range.