陕西省能源消费碳排放及脱钩分析

Carbon Emissions and Decoupling Analysis on Energy Consumption in Shaanxi Province

根据IPCC碳排放计算方法计算了陕西省1980—2010年的能源消费碳排放量,系统分析了陕西省能源消费碳排放总量、碳排放结构以及不同产业和工业不同部门碳排放的变化,并应用脱钩理论探讨陕西省经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩关系及程度。结果表明:1980—2011年,陕西省碳排放总量及煤炭消费引起的碳排放量呈现波动上升的"N"型曲线特征,石油和天然气消费引起的碳排放呈逐年递增趋势,碳排放主要来自于煤炭消费;工业部门是碳排放的主要部门,工业部门中重工业和电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业排放量最大,比重分别为48%和37%,采掘业次之,所占比重为11%,轻工业所占比重最小,约为4%,通过工业内不同行业的比较发现,电力、热力的生产和供应业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业、石油开采和天然气开采业、非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、煤炭开采和洗选业和有色金属冶炼及压延加工业是陕西省碳排放主要来源,2005年和2010年8大行业碳排放量占工业碳排放总量的92.56%和95.11%;1980—2011年间除1981年和1997—2000年为强脱钩,1982年和2001—2003年为扩张性负脱钩外,其余时期经济与能源碳排放均呈现弱脱钩状态,能源效率的提高是目前实现弱脱钩的主要原因,但其未能抵消经济发展对能源需求的增长幅度,未来一定时期内弱脱钩发展趋势仍将持续。

In this paper,carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province during the period of 1980—2011were calculated according to the approach of IPCC for carbon emission.Changes in total carbon emission,carbon emission structure as well as the carbon emission in different industries and different industrial sectors were systematically analyzed.The decoupling model was applied to discuss the decoupling relationship between economic growth and energy carbon emission in Shaanxi Province.The results show that the total carbon emission and carbon emissions caused by coal use were increasing as N-shape curve during the 1980—2011,carbon emission caused by oil and natural gas use were increasing in Shaanxi Province from 1980 to 2011.Carbon emissions came mainly from coal consumption;industrial sector is the main carbon emissions sector.Among all the industrial sectors,the heavy industry and electricity,gas and water production industry were the larger contributors of carbon emissions,which make up 48%and 37%of the industry carbon emissions,mining industry was the next closest sector at 11%,the lowest sector was light industry of 4%.By comparing carbon emissions from different industrial sectors,carbon emissions come mostly from electricity and heat production industry,chemical raw material and chemical products manufacturing industry,petroleum processing,coking plant and nuclear fuel industry,petroleum and natural gas exploitation industry,nonmetal mineral product industry,black metal smelting and rolling processing industry,coal mining and washing industry and nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry.In 2005 and 2010,these 8industrial sectors gen-erated 92.56%and 95.11%of industrial carbon emissions;Shaanxi Province pertains to weak decoupling at a national level during the period of 1980—2011,except for the period of 1981 and 1997—2000which were strong decoupling and 1981 and 1997—2000which were expansive negative decoupling.Increasing energy efficiency was the main reason for weak decoupling,but it failed to offset the economic development for growth of energy demand,and the development trend of weak decoupling will continue for some times in the future.