玛纳斯河流域冰川变化及水资源研究进展

Progress in the Research on Glacial Change and Water Resources in Manas River Basin

玛纳斯河流域地处西北内陆干旱区,由于水资源制约社会经济发展和生态环境建设,近年来也取得了很多高水平的研究成果。按流域上游产流区和中下游消耗区对以往研究进行总结,以期对流域冰川变化及水资源方面有更清晰的认知,主要从冰雪覆盖变化、河川径流变化特征及其对气候变化的响应、径流变化的模拟预测、地下水、同位素、水资源的开发利用等方面综合概述了研究区水资源的研究进展。近半个世纪以来,玛河流域上游区开展了一些冰川野外考察工作,对流域冰川的形成、作用有了初步的认识,但缺少冰川变化方面的实测数据。在全球变暖的影响下,研究区冰川面积出现了不同程度的缩减,并导致冰川生态系统服务功能价值下降;近60年来研究区气温和降水都呈递增趋势,流域年径流变化受水文年降水量、夏季温度、永久性冰川雪地面积变化等综合影响,其中径流量波动上升与气温和降水呈正相关,流域主要依赖冰雪消融和地下水补给;流域水资源承载力呈现良性发展的态势,能够维持生态系统的正常功能。但研究区由于资源性缺水和生产生活用水不断加剧,水资源日益成为区域经济社会发展的制约因素,众多学者从不同层面提出了水资源开发利用和管理方面的对策和建议。但目前的研究中仍存在一些问题和不足,重点可以在流域冰川水资源的系统研究、建立冰川变化的定位观测体系和开展详细的流域冰川模拟预测研究,要在中下游区加强社会经济用水和生态用水的科学调配等方面展开进一步研究。

Manas River Basin is located in the arid region of northwest China.Water resources of this region are the very important restriction factor of socio-economic development and eco-environmental construction.Manas River Basin has been taken as a typical region and hot spot for scientists to study hydrology and water resources.In this study,previous research was summarized according to the upstream watershed runoff downstream areas and in the consumption area in order to more clearly understand the valley glacier change and water resources from the views of the snow cover changes,change characteristics of runoff and its response to climate change,runoff simulation prediction,groundwater,isotope,the development and utilization of water resources.Nearly half a century,and the upper reaches of the River Basin to some ice field works was carried out,to understand the basin formation,effect of glacier,but measured data of glacier changes were not available.Under the effect of global warming,the glacier area in the study region appeared reduction at different degree,and resulted in the decreasing of ecosystem services;during the recent 60 years,the temperature and precipitation present increasing trend in the study area,runoff changes was influenced by hydrological year precipitation,the temperature in summer,the permanent ice and snow change,the runoff fluctuation increases were positively correlated with the temperature and precipitation,basin main-ly relied on snow and ice melt and groundwater recharge;showed a benign development capacity of river basin water resources situation,to maintain the normal function of ecological system.But water resources have restricted the regional economic and social development in the study area because of shortage of water resources and the increase of production and living water.Many scholars put forward the development and utilization of water resources and management countermeasures and suggestions from different aspects.But the research still has deficiencies and faces some challenges.Further research can establish glacier changes in system research,glacier water resources locating observation system and carry out detailed study on simulation and prediction of glacier basin,strengthen social economic water use and ecological water use of scientific allocation etc in the middle and lower area.