基于TOPSIS的聊城市土地生态经济系统稳定性分析

Stability Analysis of Land Eco-economic System in Liaocheng City Based on TOPSIS Method

为探索TOPSIS法在土地生态经济系统稳定性分析中的适用性,从经济、土地、环境、社会四个方面构建了土地生态经济系统稳定性评价指标体系,运用改进的TOPSIS法对2003—2014年聊城市的土地生态经济系统稳定性状况进行评价,并采用综合指数法进行验证。结果表明:(1)聊城市土地生态经济系统稳定性发展过程分为两个阶段:系统衰退阶段(2003—2006年),系统贴近度0.324~0.271;系统恢复和平缓发展阶段(2006—2014年),系统贴近度0.271~0.661;整体上,聊城市2003—2014年土地生态经济系统稳定性是向良好的方向发展的,与综合指数评价结果基本一致;(2)农业总产值占GDP比重、道路用地指数、人均耕地面积、单位耕地化肥施用量和人口自然增长率成为制约聊城市土地生态经济系统稳定性发展的主要因素。从而得出结论:改进的TOPSIS方法能够客观反映出聊城市土地生态经济系统稳定性变化状况,适用于土地生态经济系统稳定性评价。

In order to explore applicability of the improved TOPSIS in the stability analysis of land eco-economic system,20 indicators from the four aspects(econemy,land,environment and society)were selected to build the stability evaluation index system of land eco-economic system.The improved TOPSIS was used to evaluate the stability of the land eco-economic system of Liaocheng City from 2003 to 2014,and the comprehensive index method was employed in the verification.The results showed that:(1)the developing process of the stability of land ecoeconomic system in Liaocheng City was divided into two stages:slow decline stage(2003—2006),system closeness degree is 0.324 to 0.271;restoration and development stage(2006—2014),system closeness degree is 0.271 to 0.661;it could be seen that the stability of land eco-economic system in Liaocheng City was developing in agood direction from 2003 to 2014as a whole,which was consistent with the result of the comprehensive assessment;(2)the main factors restricting the development of the stability of land eco-economic system in Liaocheng City were the proportion of total agricultural output value to the GDP,the road land index,the cultivated land area per capita,the amount of applied fertilizer per unit of cultivated land and the natural growth rate of population.Thus,it could be concluded that the improved TOPSIS could objectively reflect the status of the variation of the stability of land eco-economic system in Liaocheng City,which was suitable for the evaluation on the stability of the land eco-economic system.