全球变化背景下新疆和田地区近半个世纪极端气温变化特征分析

Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Changes in Hotan Region Under Global Changes

对新疆和田地区1960—2013年的极端气温进行研究,以期为该区短期气候预测、生态环境安全以及灾害控制提供科学依据。通过累计距平法、滑动平均、一元线性回归趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法及Morlet小波分析法,对该地区极端气温变化特征进行了分析,以探讨该地区气温变化的事实。结果表明:近54年来和田地区极端低温、极端高温分别以0.48℃/10a(p<0.01)和0.19℃/10a(p<0.01)的速率呈明显的上升趋势。极端低温自60年代以来呈现波动上升趋势;极端高温变化幅度较大,自60年代前期下降后波动上升,70年代后期至80年代初下降,之后波动上升,90年代末以来先下降后波动上升。极端低温、高温四季呈明显的上升趋势,均为秋季变化幅度最大,对年变化的贡献最大。年均极端高温在1997年发生突变,年均极端低温突变现象不明显。该区极端气温上升明显,向暖湿化方向发展。

The minimum and maximum temperatures in four national primary standards of the ground meteorological stations in Hotan region of south Xinjiang from 1960—2013were examined to provide a scientific basis for short-term climate prediction,ecological environment security and disaster control.In order to analyze trends of the extreme temperature,the cumulative method,the method of monadic linear regression,and the Mann-Kendall mutation and Moler wavelet analysis method were used to analyze the temperature changes in the region.The results showed that:the minimum and the maximum temperature elevated obviously at the approximately 0.48℃/decade(p<0.01)and 0.19℃/decade(p<0.01),respectively,in Hotan Region in recent 54 years.The minimum temperature had fluctuated upward trend since the 1960 s.Since the early1960 s,the maximum temperature fluctuations increased after the fall;in the late 1970 sand the early 1980 s,the maximum temperature trend wave rose,about the late 90 s,it increased after the first drop in fluctuations.The minimum and maximum temperature presented the rising trend,variation was significant in the autumn and the contribution to the annual change was the largest.The annual mutation of maximum temperature occurred in 1997,but mutation phenomenon did no exist for minimum temperature.According to the study,it is found that the future development of the basin will be warm and wet.